A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
